While the ceasefire of Syria takes place, which would like to gain the increase in regional chaos?

Israel’s military strikes in Syria this week – launched in response to atrocities against the Druze minority – represent a strategic turning point in a deeper struggle of power which now intrigues Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States, according to regional analysts.

Barely a few days ago, speculation turned on a potential normalization agreement between Israel and Syria – a discreetly negotiated breakthrough by American officials, but this fragile perspective was quickly exceeded by violence, as Israeli air strikes struck near Damascus.

A ceasefire agreement between the factions of Druze and the Syrian government, announced on July 16, was supposed to calm deadly days, but it remains tenuous and largely not applied, the sporadic fights continuing and the tensions are high.

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Media members photograph the consequences of an Israeli air strike on the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense of Syria on July 16, 2025 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman / Getty Images)

“For the Druze in Israel, what is happening in southern Syria is again similar on October 7,” said Avner Golov, vice-president of the Israeli Israeli reflection group. “Israel can no longer treat Syria as a simple neighboring crisis. It is now a domestic.”

In a rare scene, the citizens of Israeli Druze crossed the border in Syria to support their besieged relatives – causing a severe warning by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“My brothers Druze, citizens of Israel … do not cross the border,” said Netanyahu. “You put your life in danger – you could be killed, you could be kidnapped – and harm the efforts of the FDI. Let the FDI do its job.”

Israeli Druze in the mass of Golan Heights along the Syrian border on July 16, 2025. Many violated the border in order to help their Syrian brothers, who were locked up in days of ethnic violence against the Bedouins and the Syrian army. (Eitan elhadez-barak / tps-il)

In his first television speech since Israeli strikes, the president of the Syrian transition Ahmed al-Sharaa experienced Israeli intervention as a destabilizing act.

“The government forces deployed in Suwaida managed to restore stability and to expel prohibited factions despite Israeli interventions,” he said, warning that strikes have led to “a significant complication of the situation” and “a large-scale escalation”. He insisted that the protection of the Druze minority of the country was an absolute priority and said that the Syrians “are not afraid of the war”.

In Israel, the collapse of order in Syria has sparked a keen debate. Some political decision-makers argue to support Sharaa as a strong anti-Iranian man, while others recommend wider military action to create a buffer zone in southern Syria. Golov supports an intermediate course: conditional strikes combined with demands for autonomy of the Druze and the responsibility of war crimes.

“If Sharaa shows that he is ready to punish those responsible for the massacre and accept Druze’s autonomy, then Israel can gradually work with him,” Golov told Fox News Digital.

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A woman signals a Syrian flag while people cross the Court of the Omeyyad mosque in the old town in the center of Damascus on January 16, 2025 in Damascus, Syria. (Photo of Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

He also called for regional diplomatic effort to stabilize Syria. “We need a regional summit-the United States, Saudi Arabia, even Turkey and Israel,” he said. “Bring positive forces to Syria and use Israeli military power not only tactically, but to obtain a diplomatic lever effect.”

“There is a temptation to miss the tour of victory,” said Behnam Taleblu, principal director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). “Rather than seeing Syria through the prism of competition with Turkey, Israel should first see it through the prism of a decreased competition with Iran. It is in itself a huge success.”

Türkiye: Alarmed, but invested

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint media statement in Baghdad on Monday, April 22, 2024. (Ahmad al-Rubaye / Pool Photo via AP)

While Iran’s position has weakened, Turkey has quietly widened its imprint in Syria by supporting the Al-Sharaa government.

Turkey’s strategic interest in Syria, Sinan Ciddi, a senior member of the FDD and director of the turkey program, explained, is to fill the vacuum cleaner left by Iran with its own political and economic influence – using the Al -Sharaa regime as conducted. “Turkey has a lot about the success of Al-Sharaa,” he said. “They would like to see an increased business, the reconstruction of Syria through Al-Sharaa. They want to use it as a means of politically influencing the region.”

However, Israel’s military response sparked an alarm in Ankara.

“Turkey is unable to challenge Israel militarily – it would be a disaster,” said Ciddi. “They speak hard, but they are deeply worried.”

Ciddi stressed that the aging military material of Turkey and the lack of air defense leave it very exposed. However, Turkey is deeply invested in the political survival of Al-Sharaa, in the hope of taking it from influence and economic ties in post-war Syria.

A direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel, warned Ciddi, “would lead to a diplomatic fiasco … and would force the United States and European countries to intervene as a mediator”.

Who are the Druze? The religious group helps Syrian members under an Islamist attack, Israeli members offer support

Iran: watch, wait and ready to come back

Even while Israel has dismantled key parts of Iranian military infrastructure in Syria, Tehran remains a long -term threat. Taleblu said Iran is waiting for now – ready to exploit the faux pas by others.

“This is a regime that capitalizes on the mistakes of others,” he said. “They don’t need to win squarely – they just need everyone to lose.”

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa meets President Donald Trump and Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman and other officials from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in this document released on May 14, 2025. (Saudi agency / press document via Reuters)

Tehran bets that the rival powers of the region – Turkey, Israel, the United States and the Gulf – will arise their hands, allowing Iran to return by proxies, sectarian militias or diplomatic manipulation.

The United States: Reculent

Although President Trump recently said that Syria’s internal affairs are “not our war”, the tone of his administration has changed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for de -escalation, and regional partners urge a clearer American role.

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“Real success will come from the creation of allegations,” said Taleblu. “What are the costs if Syria collapses? What if Turkey exceeds or Israel is extended? What if Iran comes back? The states that are preparing for these questions.”