Trump’s zero tolerance for China’s takeover in Venezuela amid sanctions
Venezuela’s Maduro accuses US of starting ‘forever war’
Manhattan Institute fellow Daniel Di Martino, who faces losing his Venezuelan citizenship, discusses Nicolás Maduro’s plan to target opposition activists and President Donald Trump’s refusal to consider strikes in the country.
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As President Donald Trump warns of “zero tolerance” for narco-states in America’s backyard, China is tightening its grip on Venezuela – a high-risk economic and political gamble that could soon collide with American power.
U.S. defense officials confirmed to Reuters last month that a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group had entered the Southern Command region, which covers the Caribbean and the northern coast of South America, to monitor narcotics trafficking routes linked to Venezuela’s military rulers.
The Pentagon said the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, carrying more than 4,000 sailors and dozens of tactical aircraft, would “enhance the United States’ ability to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities.” He added that the mission aims to “degrade and dismantle transnational criminal organizations.”
China condemns US military buildup off Venezuela coast as foreign interference in regional affairs
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) waves next to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during a visit to a real estate complex in Caracas July 21, 2014. China will provide Venezuela with a $4 billion credit line under a deal signed on Monday, with the money to be repaid by oil shipments from OPEC member Venezuela. The agreement was signed during a 24-hour visit to Venezuela by Xi, who is touring Latin America. (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)
Within weeks, Venezuelan officers were reportedly training to defend themselves in guerrilla fashion against a possible U.S. strike – an acknowledgment, according to Reuters, of “growing anxiety in Caracas.”
In this impasse, Beijing unveiled a “zero-tariff” trade agreement with Caracas during Expo 2025 in Shanghai, announced by Deputy Foreign Trade Minister Coromoto Godoy. Venezuelan officials said the agreement covers about 400 tariff categories, removing tariffs on Chinese and Venezuelan products.
Although the final details of implementation remain awaiting verification, the goal is clear: Beijing is rapidly moving toward a sanctioned economy that Washington has sought to isolate.
“It really looks like China is going to completely take over the Venezuelan economy,” said Gordon Chang, an expert on China’s global trade strategy. “This will decimate Venezuela’s local industry.”
“Venezuela mainly sells oil to China and very little else,” he said. “China, of course, is a manufacturer of many, many items. Venezuela’s manufacturing industry is not going to experience a renaissance anytime soon – it’s going in the opposite direction.”
Venezuela mobilizes troops and weapons in response to US warship construction in the Caribbean
Sailors aboard the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), launch a Carrier Air Wing 8 F/A-18E Super Hornet attached to Strike Fighter Squadron 31 from the flight deck, Sept. 26, 2025. (Mariano Lopez)
Chang added that Maduro’s sudden embrace of Beijing stems from fear of Trump’s next move.
“Maduro probably has no choice,” he said. “He realizes he has a problem with Donald J. Trump. There is an American aircraft carrier not far from his shores, and a lot of military assets are bearing down on him. He needs a friend and he is desperate.”
“For Maduro, the zero-tariff deal may offer temporary relief, but it only deepens dependency,” Chang added. “I don’t see this trade deal as strengthening Venezuela. I see it as strengthening China’s hold on Venezuela.”
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From Beijing’s point of view, the tariff-free agreement opens a commercial and strategic door to the Western Hemisphere at a time when Washington is strengthening its sanctions.
The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that China has provided about $60 billion in loans to Venezuela over the past two decades, much of which has been repaid with oil shipments – a figure still cited by Chinese and Venezuelan officials in 2025.
Members of the Bolivarian National Militia patrol a street in the 23 de Enero neighborhood during a military exercise, in Caracas, Venezuela, January 23, 2025. (Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters)
“China has mobilized multibillion-dollar loans and established satellite positioning and surveillance facilities to ensure strategic control over Venezuela’s natural resources and critical infrastructure,” said Isaias Medina III, an Edward Mason Fellow at Harvard University and a former Venezuelan diplomat on the U.N. Security Council.
Medina was referring to the El Sombrero satellite ground station in Venezuela’s Guárico province — a joint Sino-Venezuelan project that Western analysts, including a recent Associated Press report, describe as part of a broader space cooperation network giving Beijing an intelligence foothold in Latin America.
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Medina said the new pact should be understood as one layer of a broader anti-Western alignment.
“Under the banner of so-called ‘21st century socialism,’ initiated by Hugo Chávez and developed by Nicolás Maduro, the nation has become a forward operating base for regimes openly hostile to the United States and its allies,” he said.
“Iran, Russia, China and Cuba have entrenched themselves in Venezuelan territory, using the country as a platform for asymmetric warfare, intelligence operations and ideological expansion throughout Latin America.”
FILE – March 8, 2013 file photo released by the Miraflores Press Office: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stands in front of a portrait of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. (AP Photo/Miraflores Press Office, file)
He pointed out that “Russia’s military footprint includes more than $12 billion in arms sales, defense cooperation and the Wagner Group’s presence in military exercises,” while Cuban military advisers remain embedded within Venezuelan security institutions.
“Iran has exploited this environment to embed terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, using Venezuela as both a financial hub and a logistical corridor. These activities extend to former training camps in Syria, where Venezuelan agents and mercenaries were indoctrinated in hybrid warfare tactics,” he added. “Iranian interest includes potential drone manufacturing and uranium mining.”
“The Maduro government, protected by the absence of rule of law or legitimate governance, has replaced the art of governing with a criminal enterprise,” Medina said. “Grand corruption is not an exception; it is the system.”
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has not yet publicly commented on the strike. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
“The humanitarian toll is catastrophic,” he added. “More than 30% of Venezuela’s population has been forcibly displaced. Famine was used as a tool of social control, amounting to a war crime under international law. likewise, to project its power dangerously close to American territory. »
For now, Washington’s sanctions campaign continues to limit Venezuela’s oil resources. In March 2025, Reuters reported that U.S. threats to impose tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude had caused a temporary interruption of shipments to China. Beijing called the measures “illegal extraterritorial actions” and pledged continued cooperation, but did not reveal how it would implement the new tariff-free deal.
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The Maduro administration is seeking to rally government supporters amid an economic slowdown and refugee crisis. (Jesus Vargas/AP Photo)
Chang said the underlying reality has not changed: China cannot protect Caracas from U.S. hard power.
“It can certainly launch a propaganda campaign,” he said, “but it can’t project military force into the region. It really depends on what President Trump does. China doesn’t have the military strength to oppose U.S. intervention if that’s what Trump decides.”
Medina acknowledged that the issues go beyond economics. “Just three hours from American shores, this narcoterrorist regime has become the operational convergence of organized crime, drug trafficking, money laundering and human rights atrocities,” he said, calling for a Western response combining “diplomatic isolation, targeted sanctions and, if necessary, defensive deployments.”
