Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 52% to 43% in new Virginia governor poll

With just a dozen days until Election Day, a new poll in one of only two states in the country with gubernatorial matchups this year shows Democrats with single-digit leads at the top of the ticket but tight margins in the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger leads her Republican rival, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 52 to 43 percent among likely voters in Virginia, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Earle-Sears comes out in heated debate as Spanberger avoids questions from Jay Jones,

But the survey indicates that Republican candidate for lieutenant governor John Reid and his Democratic rival Ghazala Hasmi are deadlocked at 45 percent, and that GOP Attorney General Jason Miyares leads Democratic challenger Jay Jones between 46 percent and 42 percent.

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states to hold gubernatorial elections the year after the presidential election. And the elections, which traditionally attract outsized national attention, are seen this year as early verdicts on President Donald Trump’s unprecedented and relentless second-term agenda, as well as key barometers ahead of next year’s midterm showdowns for the U.S. House and Senate.

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Democrat Abigail Spanberger, right, is running against Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, left, in the state’s gubernatorial race this year. (Kristen Zeis/The Washington Post via Getty Images; Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

While Spanberger has led Earle-Sears in a series of surveys since the start of the year, polling has tightened recently after explosive revelations about the Virginia attorney general race shook the campaign trail.

THE NATION’S ONLY TWO GOVERNOR RACES IN 2025 ARE DROPPED WITH THREE WEEKS UNTIL ELECTION DAY

Jones has been in crisis mode since controversial three-year-old texts — in which he compared then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert to mass murderers Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. He said if he was given two bullets, he would use both against the Republican lawmaker to shoot him in the head. The news was first reported a few weeks ago by National Review.

Jones acknowledged and apologized for the texts, but faced calls from Republicans to withdraw from the race. And the GOP aims to capitalize on the controversy throughout the vote, forcing Spanberger to defend himself.

While the poll indicates more respondents view the nation as on the wrong track, more also view Virginia on the right track under Youngkin, which would generally support the ruling party in Richmond.

However, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40%, foreshadowing a tough fight that could eventually break out for Democrats. However, it was also Trump who received the most credit from Virginians surveyed on the peace process between Israel and Hamas – with former President Joe Biden receiving credit from only 4% of respondents.

More respondents also blamed Democrats than Republicans for the current government shutdown – 38% to 28%, while Trump, by name, was blamed by an additional 21% of respondents.

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Jay Jones and Attorney General Jason Miyares debate at the University of Richmond, home of the Spiders, in Richmond, Virginia, October 16, 2025. (Mike Kropf/Richmond Times-Dispatch via pool)

“Spanberger is trying to carry the entire Democratic ticket across the finish line,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Center for Political Research. “However, Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general are struggling in their respective competitions, and they cannot seem to replicate Spanberger’s popularity, early voting game, or dominance over their opponents.”

According to the new poll, conducted Oct. 19-21, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears among women 57 to 38 percent, while trailing by just a single point among men, 49 to 48 percent. Among black voters, Spanberger led Earle-Sears 87 to 9 percent, while he trailed among white voters 52 to 46 percent.

And the poll indicates that Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 15 points among voters who identify as independent, and by 19 points among those who have already voted.

Early voting in Virginia began on September 19, and the poll suggests that nearly a quarter of all votes for governor in the November election have already been cast.

Five hundred likely voters in Virginia were surveyed in the poll. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.