The Senate could vote on the Republican closure bill as soon as tomorrow

The Senate could take a test vote as early as tomorrow afternoon on a revamped Republican bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and funding parts of the government for the remainder of the fiscal year.

We are still awaiting bill text on a measure that would fund the government through the end of January and provide money to the Department of Agriculture (which funds SNAP), the Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects and Congress through September 30, 2026.

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But things will start to move once the text is published this evening or tomorrow morning.

This appears to be a pure spending bill, with nothing distinct about renewing the Obamacare subsidies.

The test vote requires 60 yes votes. This implies the support of Democrats. Fox is asked to watch the following Democratic senators to see if they will vote to break a filibuster — even though they may not be needed to vote for the final bill. Only a simple majority is necessary.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., speaks during a press conference with other members of the Senate Republican leadership following a policy luncheon in Washington, DC, October 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Fox is told this is the universe of potential senators who are meeting with Democrats to monitor as many yes votes as possible to break a filibuster:

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Jack Reed, D-N.H., Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., John Fetterman, D-Pa., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., Gary Peters, D-Mo., Angus King, I-Maine, and Patty Murray, D-Wash. Murray is the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee. Fox learns that Murray scored important words in the fragile spending pact.

This is a fragile coalition that could collapse.

But if the Senate breaks the filibuster, it’s only a matter of time before senators vote to reopen the government. In fact, it’s possible the Senate could vote Sunday night if senators can agree on a deadline.

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Under the rules, the Senate has significant debate time once it ends a filibuster. Fox is told that progressives, angry that they got nothing on health care — and were burned by their own party — might try to stretch things out as much as possible. That could mean the Senate won’t vote until Tuesday or beyond on final passage.

But by the same token, Democrats are only preventing SNAP benefits from disappearing. They could therefore accept an accelerated process.

The House must return with 48 hours’ notice. The House could therefore not return until midweek to align with the Senate and reopen the government. But it is likely that the House will be recalled as soon as possible.

The Senate returns to Washington, DC, with the shutdown shaping up to be the longest on record and neither side ready to dislodge their positions. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

The House’s position is unclear on this bill. However, it is hard to believe that most Republicans would not accept this deal. Additionally, Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., and Jared Golden, D-Maine, are among the moderate Democrats who could be in play to vote yes if the GOP loses a few votes. Golden was the only House Democrat to vote for the former interim spending bill on September 19. Golden has since announced his retirement.

Here’s another question:

“Twisted irony”: Democrats risk betraying their own problems with government shutdown gamble

Would the House elect Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., before or after the vote? Democrats will bawl if Johnson fails to administer Grijalva the oath of office before a possible House vote.

And as they say, it’s always a question of mathematics.

Grijalva’s inauguration brings the House to 433 members with two vacant seats. The distribution is 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. That means the Republican Party can only lose two votes before needing help from Democrats.

The United States Capitol in Washington, DC, United States, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Additionally, prepare for the internecine war between the Democrats that will begin once the Democrats break with their party. Great divisions will emerge between Democrats who vote to break the filibuster and those who call for Obamacare subsidies.

Additionally, consider the chasm that appears between House and Senate Democrats once this is over.

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And here’s the thing: It’s entirely possible that a group of Senate Democrats threw their colleagues under the bus to end the shutdown — and that the party got no guarantees on health care money despite their risky political shutdown gamble.