The Iranian diet collapses possible but the replacement remains uncertain

While the Iranian regime turns out to the Israeli strikes supported on military and nuclear infrastructure, the debate intensifies on what could come.

Experts say that the end of the Islamic Republic is no longer unthinkable – but warn that what replaces it could either raise the country to a freer future or plunge it into instability.

Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince in Iran in exile and a prominent opposition figure, posted yesterday: “Sources in Iran say that the regime’s command and control structures collapse at a rapid pace. During this time, the international community begins to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions on a post-Islamic Republic of Iran have started.”

“The first thing is that the revolution is too broad a word,” said Behnam Taleblu, principal researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The best words are evolution and devolution, which means that if you get something better or something worse. Because it is the Middle East, and fundamentally, things can get worse, not better, when you introduce an exogenous shock.”

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The supreme Iranian chief of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets Iranian interim president Mohammad Mokhber and the members of the cabinet of Imam Khomeini Husseiniya in Tehran, Iran, July 7, 2024. (Iranian Leader Press Office / Handout / Anadolu via Getty Images)

Taleblu warned that the Iranian opposition and Western governments have not been able to prepare for the collapse of the regime due to a long -standing reluctance to engage with the idea of ​​change of regime. “By not being able to articulate the necessary political strategy … We are not prepared,” he said.

Beni Sabti, an Iranian expert from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, sees four scenarios emerging from the current moment – one, he warns, is much worse than the others.

“The Iranian people are currently without leader, with low energy and disillusioned since women’s demonstrations,” Sveti told Fox News Digital. “A scenario is the collapse of the interior, similar to the Soviet Union. A brigade commander inside the revolutionary guards, supported by a circle of loyalists, could decide to rebel inside the regime.”

Sabti said that after Israel has eliminated many generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), the generals, the regular army of Iran could now be better placed to increase. “This could even align with the disappointed elements of the revolutionary guards,” he said. “Because they know the system and its bureaucracy, the initiates could quietly organize something from the inside. There would be victims, but it could take place as a relatively calm historical event.”

In this photo published by Iranian Red Crescent Society, the rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)

Taleblu supports the idea that a transition from the diet could emerge from the inside, but notes that Iran has spent decades “to make a coup”.

“It has favored more depending on zeal than capacity. It is therefore less likely that you can emerge a conventional military coup,” he said. “This does not mean that it cannot happen, but it would take a significant amount of policy and maneuver.”

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The second scenario described by Sabti is a popular uprising triggered by the release of political prisoners. “There are many political leaders in Iranian prisons,” he said. “If some are released, they could rally the public. They were once part of the regime but tried to move the course and now support relations with the United States, it would always be a very cold peace with Israel – but not hostile.”

Taleblu noted that the Iranian company has already undergone a significant change in the last decade. “Large expanses of the Iranian population – 80% are probably a minimum number – Hate of this regime,” he said. “The demonstrations since 2017, in particular” women, life, freedom “, have been triggered not only by politics, but by economic, social, even environmental issues.”

The Iranians protest against the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, after being detained by the police of morality, in Tehran, Iran, on October 1, 2022. (The Associated Press)

A third possibility, said Sabti, is the return of exiled leaders. “There is a deep romantic nostalgia for the monarchy,” he said. “Perhaps in a later phase, if the intestine struggles burst, people could rally around a symbolic figure -” stay back and be a symbol “. This could strengthen the revolution.”

Taleblu recognized that figures like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi could play a role, but not as leaders. “Consider the diaspora as a bridgehead in a new Iran-not the defined of the new Iran,” he said. “People inside Iran should be those who shape the next Iran.”

According to Sabti, the fourth – and the worst – is that the diet survives. “This is the worst option,” he said frankly.

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Taleblu has accepted, warning that survival would bring an even more repressive future. “If the Islamic Republic survives, it will survive more radically-more military, less clergy,” he said. “There is a debate: does it become like Turkey or Pakistan, or does it become even more messianic? The older IRGCs are corrupt; the youngest are messianic.”

One of the most controversial questions looming in all these scenarios is the future role of Iranian non-personal communities, including Ahwazi, Baloch, Azerris and Kurds. Aref al-Kaabi, executive president of the state of Ahwaz, told Fox News Digital in a written declaration that without strengthening confidence between these communities and the Persian opposition, the change will remain elusive.

The Iranian supreme chief Ali Khamenei addresses the media during the elections in parliament in Tehran, Iran, on May 10, 2024. (Photo of Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu via Getty Images)

“In my opinion, the regime change to Iran is possible if the following conditions are met: continuous Israeli strikes … Support for non-Persian components … Will … and trusted bridges between Arabs, Kurds, Baloch, Azeris and Persian opposition,” said Al-Kaabi. “If these conditions are met, I believe that the fall of the regime will only be a matter of days.”

He said that in recent days, the IRGC had launched widespread arrests in Ahwaz to prevent mobilization. “Most people arrested are Arabs from Abadan, Bushehr, Sheyban and Shoaibiya,” he said.

Al-Kaabi also criticized the Persian opposition abroad. “They see us – Arabs, Kurds, Azéris, Baloutches – as separatists and refuse to work with us. This stubbornness is one of the main reasons why the regime is always in power.”

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Taleblu warned of Western attempts to divide the country. “The way to unite the Iranian population is not to talk about Balkan,” he said. “It would be its own objective of moral and strategic proportions.”