The absence of XI from the top of the BRICS reduces speculation on the influence of China

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the Brazil’s BRICS at the top of this week, marking the first time that the Chinese chief missed the gathering of major emerging economies. The steep decision has triggered generalized speculation on the internal political dynamics within China and the flavored cohesion of the BRICS itself.

The official explanation of China – an “timetable” and the fact that Xi has already met Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva earlier this year, according to South China Morning Post – met skepticism. Prime Minister Li Qiang will attend the summit in place of XI, pursuing a recent XI trend reducing his appearances on the world scene.

“It doesn’t make sense,” said Gordon Chang, an expert in American-Chinese relations. “There are many other countries at the BRICS summit, not only in Brazil. For me, it is extremely significant that Xi Jinping does not take place. This suggests that turbulence at home – there are signs that it has lost control of the army and that civil rivals reaffirm power. It is a symptom of this.”

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Chinese President Xi Jinping listens to Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chineh, unfulfilled, is expressed at their meeting at the Office of the Central Party Committee in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Monday, April 14. (AP / Minh Hoang)

Bryan Burack of the Heritage Foundation agrees that the absence of Xi highlights the deeper problems: “This is another indication that the Brics will not be vassalization by China in the world.” He noted that countries like Brazil and Indonesia have recently imposed tariffs on China on industrial overcapacity and spill, movements that suggest enlargement of rifts within the group.

“China actively affects all these countries for the most part, perhaps a few exceptions, through its malignant trade policies and its discharges and overcapacity.”

Tensions with India and global trade pressure can also be factors

Some analysts highlight the increase in the friction of China-India as a factor contributing to Xi’s decision to jump the summit.

“China has been at war with India for decades, mainly,” said Burack. “These are fundamentally opposed interests. It is difficult to see China change its short -term behavior, which will maintain high tensions.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi should play a leading role at the meeting, potentially another means of deterrent for XI attendance.

Another key chief – Russian President Vladimir Putin – should not address the group by video.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the left, are two key leaders of the BRICS Alliance. (Sergei Bobylev, Spoutnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

BRICS: United in name, divided into tensions of several decades

Formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China and then joined by South Africa, Brics was envisaged as a non -Western counterweight to the domination of the G7. He has widened to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Water and, more recently, Indonesia, strengthening its economic imprint.

The economist Christian Briggs has highlighted the massive scale of BRICS: “BRICS now include 12 full members and up to 23 when counting partners. Collectively, they represent more than 60% of world GDP and around 75% of the world’s population. They control the vast natural resources and a growing share of world trade flows.”

However, despite its scale, the block remains ideologically and strategically fragmented. “It’s a group of countries that hate each other,” said Burack frankly. “China harms many of them thanks to unfair commercial practices. There is not much incitement to a real unit.”

Monetary ambitions and strategic differences

The aspirations of the Alliance to contest the US dollar through alternative payment systems and a potential BRICS currency have won media – but experts warn against the overestimation of this threat.

“There was a lot of fear of the British currency,” said Burack. “But the interests of these countries are completely divergent. There is more smoke than fire regarding a monetary challenge in the dollar.”

Chang has echoed this skepticism: “The only country that can challenge the dollar is the United States. The weakness of the dollar is due to what we do at the national level, not to what the BRICS do.”

However, Briggs offered a counterpoint, arguing that BRICS members are already reshaping the flow of global currency.

“They move away from the dollar in the digital yuan, rupees, rubles. China has launched a rapid alternative already adopted by the Caribbean banking sector – billions of dollars change.”

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a family photo at the Kazan summit on October 23, 2024. (Alexander Zemlianichenkopool / AFP via Getty Images)

Are the BRICS still a threat to the United States?

Although its cohesion remains questionable, BRICS poses a long -term challenge for us, especially in the regions where Washington fell diplomatically and economically.

“China has filled the void left by the United States in places like Africa,” said Briggs. “Now, it controls around 38% of world minerals. Meanwhile, the Russian economy has doubled despite the sanctions, because they have preventively reduced the dependence of the dollar.”

However, Chang considers India as a brake on any aggressive anti-Western inclination. “Brics has a” I “in it – and it’s India. Modi does not want to be part of a anti -Western block. As long as India in the BRICS, the rest of the world is sure.”

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi should play a leading role at the top, potentially another means of deterrent for the attendance of XI. (SIPA USA via AP)

A missed opportunity – or a calculated power movement?

For some, the non-presentation of XI indicates instability in Beijing. For others, the opposite: it demonstrates confidence in the domination of China over the other members of the BRICS.

“He doesn’t need to be there,” said Briggs. “The power of Xi allows him to delegate. China is negotiated with almost 80% of the world now. He advances the age of the same in absence.”

What is clear is that the BRICS continue to evolve – its internal contradictions as visible as its geopolitical ambitions. Whether the absence of XI marks a retreat or a recalibration remains one of the key questions on the summit in Brazil.