The arsenal of Iranian missiles has decreased but remains the largest in the Middle East: experts

Even in the middle of a fragile ceasefire, Iran continues to warn the United States and Israel that it retains the ability to inflict serious damage if they are caused.

Iranian officials have said that the country can support daily missile strikes for two years – a complaint drawing an in -depth examination of military experts and Western intelligence analysts.

“Our armed forces are up to their preparation,” said major-general Ebrahim Jabbari of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), addressing the semi-official news agency in Mehr. “Sleepman, underground missile bases and the installations we have are so huge that we have not yet demonstrated the majority of our defense capacities and our effective missiles.”

“In the event of war with Israel and the United States, our facilities will not run even if we throw missiles every day for two years,” he added.

Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi, Supreme Military Military Advisor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, echoed this warning: “The Zionists know that some of our forces, such as the Navy and the force, have not yet come into combat,” he said. “Until now, we have produced several thousand missiles and drones, and their place is secure.”

But intelligence analysis suggests that Iran’s complaints mask serious losses.

Tehran started conflict with an arsenal of around 3,000 missiles and 500 missile launchers at 600 missile launchers, according to Open-Source Intelligence. At the end of the so -called “12 -day war” – a series of Israel attacks on its military storage warehouses and its production facilities followed by American attacks against nuclear sites and Iranian counterattacks – it was between 1,000 missiles and 1500 missiles and only 150 launchers at 200 launchers.

The image shows the consequences of an Iranian missile strike on Tel Aviv in June. (Images Amir Levy / Getty)

Trump Iran ceted brokers, because experts say that the regime’s arsenal is broken but the threat remains

“The regime was increasingly forced to choose between using or losing these projectiles as a targeted missile launchers,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iranian expert in the Defense of Democracies.

The replacement of missile launchers after Israel has degraded their production capacities will be extremely difficult, according to Danny Citrinowicz, Iranian expert from the Institute of National Security Studies.

“Israel has attacked all the places where the Iranians make missiles,” he told Fox News Digital.

Iran may have the ability to attack Israel with its missiles, but “not hundreds”.

Could Iran hit the American homeland?

Iranian rhetoric has sometimes launched the idea of ​​hitting the United States directly, but analysts agree that the threat is much more limited.

“The theoretical way they can hit the United States is simply to use its capacity in Venezuela,” said Citrinowicz, referring to Iran’s growing military cooperation with its Caracas capital. “Strategically, it was one of the main objectives they had – to build their presence in Venezuela. But it is in the long term. It would be very difficult to do it, and I am not sure that the Venezuelan government would like it to happen.”

Instead, any reprisal strike would probably focus on American assets and staff in the Middle East.

Can Kasapoglu, a principal researcher from the Hudson Institute and a Middle East military affairs expert, said the War Goals of Israel were going beyond missile factories, targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure and advanced weapons development.

“We are not 100% sure of centrifugal damage, so we cannot say that the nuclear program is destroyed,” said Kasapoglu. “But we can safely assume that the nuclear program has been donated for years.”

Israeli defensive capacities have prevented the much greater destruction ”, says the expert

He added that Israel was strongly concentrated on the solid and medium -reaching ballistic missiles of Iran – many of which have a “very high terminal speed, nearly Mach 10” and are capable of evasive maneuvers.

“It makes them even more dangerous,” he said.

However, despite the setbacks, Iran “is still the greatest ballistic missile power in the Middle East,” he said. “We have seen that during the war, because Iran was able to enter Israeli airspace – even when Israeli and American interceptors drew the interceptor after the interceptor to stop a single ballistic missile.”

A map shows what is within reach of ballistic missiles from Iran, according to the rendering of the CSIS dated June 23. (Fox News)

By comparing the “depth of the magazine”, Kasapoglu noted that Iran still maintains a deeper stock of missiles than Israel, even with American aid, and has interceptors.

Chinese proxy forces

The regional threat is not limited to the continental arsenal of Iran. Iran’s proxies, in particular the Houthis in Yemen, remain a powerful force.

“Houthis are the only Iranian proxy that really concerns me.”

Kasapoglu stressed that new information accusing Chinese satellite companies of providing real -time targeting data to the Houthis, which have taken up maritime attacks in the Red Sea.

“Two days ago, they attacked a Greek merchant ship with Liberian flag,” he said.

“Houthis are the only Iranian proxy who really concerns me,” said a military expert. (The Associated Press)

With advanced Chinese satellite support and hardened anti-ship cruise missiles, the Houthis could destabilize the shipping routes and widen the conflict beyond the Israeli-Iranian front.

“Iran always has important asymmetrical capacities in the maritime field and the transnational terrorist apparatus, but it is difficult to see how the deployment of these assets would not invite more ruin,” said Taleblu. “Bluster and hyperbola have long been elements of Iran’s deterrent strategy.”

The so-called “12-day war” ended with a broker’s ceasefire in the United States, but the region remains on board. Iranian leaders continue to boast of unexploited military capabilities, but battle losses, manufacturing disturbances and previous counterattack measures have limited its options.

While Tehran retains the power to project force and threaten Israel regional assets and the United States, experts agree that its ability to launch sustained and high volume attacks has been significantly reduced.

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Iran is perhaps still dangerous, but its bark, for the moment, can be stronger than its bite.