More than a month after the government shutdown, no end in sight – but the predictions are afoot

They say everyone is a critic.

But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone is an oracle.

Especially when trying to figure out when this might end.

“(Democrats) are waiting to elect (Zohran) Mamdani, the communist who will soon become mayor of New York. And then I think things will resume as normal,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, I think it will happen shortly before Thanksgiving.”

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: FASTING ITS POTENTIAL END

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also offered her own prediction.

“I think this week might be the good week,” Capito said on FOX Business.

But Sen. John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” Cornyn said on Fox. “We continue to look for rational behavior from Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a stupid idea to begin with. And it hasn’t gotten better since.”

Everyone is now looking for a glimmer of hope. A glimmer of reason why the government shutdown won’t get worse.

The Statue of Liberty atop the U.S. Capitol is visible on the 23rd day of the government shutdown, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been several inflection points along the way, but nothing provided the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.

Yes, emergency food aid intended for the country’s poorest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is getting worse by the hour. Health care premiums officially spiked Saturday — which is why Democrats were initially hesitant to defund the government.

But none of these developments have really forced the parties back to the negotiating table. That’s why some see Tuesday’s elections as a potential turning point.

THE STOP SEEN FROM THE PULPITUS: A STOP ON A WING AND A PRAYER

Mamdani is the favorite to become New York’s next mayor. Republicans now believe the election is the reason Democrats haven’t given up on government funding. They believe certain election results — a victory for progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are losses by moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., running for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., running for governor of New Jersey — will push Democrats into action. Republicans say such results will force Democrats to view their party as out of touch with reality.

“I hope tomorrow’s election marks a change. A sea change in all of this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “I hope that after everyone has voted, that they’ll be in their rooms and they’ll do the math that, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won’t have to hold this line anymore.'”

Republicans know the shutdown will eventually end. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats caved because of the election results.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed hope that Tuesday’s election will be “a game changer.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

You should know that the Republicans have been predicting the end of confinement for five weeks now.

“Cracks have begun to appear in the Democratic base,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., proclaimed Oct. 1.

Republicans thought Democrats would cave within days of the shutdown beginning.

This never happened.

SENATE REPUBLICS PLAN LONGER-TERM FUNDING BILL AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

The GOP then argued that Democrats were simply holding out until after the October 19 “No Kings” rallies — that Democrats would then have “shown they were fighting.”

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after this rally,” Johnson predicted on Fox on October 10.

There was no such thing.

Then the Republican Party changed its argument that Democrats were about to concede because federal workers were missing paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to the point where the consequences of this are very real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said on Fox on Oct. 23.

This theory also fizzled.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that “we’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits and rising health care premiums on November 1.

“The Democrats are going to completely collapse,” Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, predicted on Fox this weekend.

But nothing has changed.

“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to destroy health care for the American people,” proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s our position. Week after week, week after week – and that will remain our position.”

Say what you want about the Democrats’ strategy. But they did not retreat.

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Keep in mind that Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a GOP spending plan that would only fund the government through November 21.

“This is now close to a moot point,” Cornyn said. “What they will do next, I don’t know.”

Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a “lost” date.

Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what the “deadline” was for Republicans to make another call.

“With the November 21 date, that’s not a lot of time to resolve differences,” Scalise responded.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about the “deadline” for another play call from his party. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

There is now talk of Republicans drafting another short-term spending bill through January.

“The longer the runway, the better,” Thune said. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out where that landing spot would be.”

But there’s no guarantee that either chamber can pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ key demands go unaddressed.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black suggested that lawmakers needed help resolving the crisis — simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were in late September.

“Inspire our lawmakers to come together to put out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than expected,” Black prayed.

It is too unpredictable to predict with certainty when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you’ll eventually get it right.

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So what do you think of this prediction:

The closure will end.

Eventually.

And this is truly the only safe prediction we can make at this time.