Military experts: Iran’s strike power has decreased after devastating attacks

In a historic turn of events, Iran accepted a ceasefire on Monday following a limited strike at an American military base in Qatar.

The agreement, negotiated by President Donald Trump, marks a dramatic de -escalation after 12 days of war.

Even if the cease-fire agreement seems to have trembling, experts say that Iran’s decision to take a step back reflects the heavy record that its military infrastructure has taken following coordinates We and Israelis strikes On nuclear sites, missile stocks and the main production facilities.

“Iran cannot win this war,” said Danny Orbach, a military historian at the Hebrew University. “They have lost around 60% of their launchers. Even if they still have around 1,000 long -range missiles, without enough functional launchers, they cannot deploy them effectively.”

Trump announces a historic agreement of Iran and the ceasefire of Israel to put an end to the “day war”

Iranian supreme chief Ali Khamenei, on the left, and President Donald Trump.

In our opinion and Israeli officials, the attack on the Al Udeid air base in Qatar – the largest American base in the Middle East – has caused no victim and only minor damage. The strike seems to have been carefully calibrated.

“The strike in Qatar was coordinated with the Americans and was not intended to impress or cause real damage,” said Sima Shine, a former Iranian Mossad and expert from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies. “Iran still has weapons, but that does not want to attract the United States to a total war. And they know that closing the Hormuz Strait will end badly for them.”

“What has largely remained intact is the capacity of the short range of Iran,” said Blaise Misztal, vice-president of politics at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (Jinsa). “These are thousands of rockets, missiles and drones that cannot reach Israel, but can absolutely hit us bases in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and Water. This is what we saw in the strike on Al Udeid.”

Misztal added that the remaining arsenal of Iran is “well developed and available in much larger quantities” than its long -range weapons. “The danger is not only for American forces. Iran can always target energy infrastructure, major cities and commercial expeditions in the Gulf.”

Supporters of Iraqi pro-Iranian groups hold photos of commanders of the Iranian revolutionary guard killed in Israeli air strikes in Tehran, Iran, during a demonstration in Baghdad near the Green Zone, the ultra-secure district housing the United States’s embassy, ​​June 16, 2025, in the Israel-Iran district. (Photo of Ahmad al-Rubaye / AFP via Getty Images)

Trump is monumental damage ” while experts expect a verdict from the Iranian nuclear program

In 2024 Report for JinsaRetirement General Frank McKenzie, a former commander of the American central command, warned that the American bases in the Gulf are of critical vulnerability to the Iranian saturation of missiles and drones attacks. He noted that installations like Al Udeid are only a few minutes from the Iranian launch sites, leaving a short time to react – and called for a strategic change to the west and a stronger anti -missile defense integration with regional allies to overcome the “tyranny of geography”.

While the United States has repositioned certain planes and ships before the expected Iranian reprisals, the president of the joint staff chiefs, General Dan Caine, confirmed that the defense measures had been reinforced in Iraq and Syria.

Analysts say that the real reason for the ascent of Iran is the extent of its losses.

A massive plume of smoke and fire rises from an oil refinery in the south of Tehran, Iran, following the information that an Israeli strike overnight targeted the site on June 15, 2025. (Atta Kenare / AFP)

Orbach explained that Iran is now faced with what military theorist William Tecumseh Sherman described as “a range of bad choices”. “They don’t have the money to rebuild everything,” he said. “They will have to choose between restoring their missile program, supporting proxies or reviving their nuclear infrastructure. They cannot do everything.”

“Iran remains the main sponsor of terror in the world,” added Misztal, “they have already traced assassinations on American soil. They have already carried out attacks on a global scale,” said Misztal. “And they have invested massively in the cyber since the Stoxnet attack in 2010. Energy infrastructure, regional systems, even American targets – they are all vulnerable.”

Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) walk during a parade. IRGC is appointed as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department. A large part of his work consists in making secretly outside Iran. (Reuters)

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“Will Iran will learn a lesson in these attacks enough to moderate its behavior? This seems unlikely,” added Misztal, “I think their hope is that, whatever this is to end or what happens to their nuclear program, they can return to their usual aggression scheme-using indirect attaches and attacks in the whole region and this diet is constructed for America, Israel.