Government shutdown looms again as Jan. 31 deadline approaches

It’s not going to get better.

This fall, the government shut down for a record 43 days. And if you thought you’d seen the worst of Congress, things really won’t get any better when the majority of the federal government could shut down in the wee hours of January 31.

That’s correct. Lawmakers have yet to address the issues that triggered this year’s stunning shutdown. Some of them are legislative. Some are related to politics. And the biggest problems are political.

Frankly, the political issues are perhaps the most difficult.

Let’s start with the most obvious ways to quell a winter crisis in Washington.

The shutdown is over, but the budget fight in Washington has only just begun

A view of the United States Capitol at sunset, January 30, 2025. (Emma Woodhead/Fox News Digital)

The interim bill to reopen the government included three bills aimed at funding significant sections of the federal government through September 30, 2027, the end of the current fiscal year. Congress has passed three of the 12 appropriations bills that run the government each year. These are Legislative Branch for Congress, Military Construction/VA for military construction programs, and the Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of Agriculture. Although these are three of the 12 annual spending bills, they are by no means a “quarter” of all spending passed by Congress each year. More than half of all spending controlled by Congress goes to the Pentagon alone. The House and Senate must therefore pass the remaining nine annual bills in order to avoid a repeat of this fall at 00:00:01 on Saturday, January 31.

It’s a big challenge. But key appropriators on both sides of the aisle and on both sides of the Capitol say notable progress has been made on these bills. Still, getting everything in sync in just over two months — with Congress out of session again this week and scheduled for Christmas and New Years — seems to some like a fateful date. Keep in mind that Congress did not stay in session in late July and August to tackle some of these same bills. We wonder why things will be different now.

And we haven’t even touched on the tricky issues hidden in the various bills themselves.

Shutdown sparks strategic debate: Will Trump and Republicans pay the political price in 2026?

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks during a press conference with other members of the Senate Republican leadership following a policy luncheon in Washington, DC, October 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The “Labor-H” bill, which funds the Department of Labor as well as Health and Human Services, is still a political thicket. Imagine how tough this bill will be this time, with the two sides clashing over policies dictated by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines and other controversial health care pronouncements. Not to mention the central issue that led Democrats to oppose government funding in September: an extension of Obamacare health subsidies.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is now promising a vote related to an extension of these tax credits to cover rising health care premiums. But no one knows what this package will look like. Some Republicans, like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green, R-Ga., are now embracing the subsidies. She is now retiring in January. Other Republicans are exploring ways to reform the program. Democrats might balk at this. And still other conservatives are using this opportunity to potentially torpedo Obamacare – the bane of their existence since 2009.

This might be the greatest political irony of all. Imagine a world in which Republicans tried, from 2009 to 2017, to repeal and replace Obamacare — but stumbled at every turn. Then, in 2025, Democrats refused to vote to fund the government in an effort to support Obamacare — and that’s ultimately what ended the program.

Wow.

Additionally, President Trump is threatening to veto any bill extending Obamacare subsidies.

So we could already be facing another government shutdown unless Democrats abandon their tactic this fall.

Much of what we discussed concerns legislative and policy disputes that lawmakers need to resolve before the end of January. But political challenges overshadow these problems.

Imagine a coda to what unfolded this fall. Most Democrats refuse to fund the government. But a coalition of some Democrats and most Republicans is keeping the government afloat to avoid another shutdown.

The recriminations within the Democratic Party will be staggering. Expect epic infighting over Democrats executing yet another strategy. There will be calls for the ouster of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., even though both have sided with most Democrats in refraining from funding the government unless there is a deal on health care money.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BECOMES LONGEST IN US HISTORY AS DEMOCRATS RUN ON OBAMACARE

Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill, September 24, 2024, in Washington. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo)

Democrats could find themselves entering a civil war in early 2026 – just as they see opportunities to defeat Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. On paper, Democrats have a very good chance of taking control of the House. The Senate is a party-based map that heavily favors the GOP. But Democrats think they could be within striking distance if they fill the seats of incumbent Sens. Gary Peters, D-Mich., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Sen. Jon Ossoff, Democrat of Georgia, is expected to win re-election in a competitive state. Democrats should then flip the seat of incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., flip Ohio and perhaps pull an armadillo out of a hat in Texas. It’s not impossible. But very difficult.

Infighting could cause Democrats to stumble on this very narrow Senate path. It’s the same thing with the House. Democrats need to appear united as the 2026 midterm elections approach. But bickering over Government Shutdown No. 1 or Government Shutdown No. 2 does the party a disservice.

Republicans are not vaccinated against the tricky 2026 policies that are tied to shutdowns.

Democrats decided this fall to suspend health care. And if Republicans don’t comply with Democrats’ demand to expand health care subsidies, the Republican Party could find itself at odds with voters on the issue. If so, Democrats may not have won the battle against the government shutdown. But maybe they will prevail in the war: the 2026 midterm elections.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

That’s why few exhaled after Congress voted last week to reopen the government. Everyone connected to the Capitol knows things are unlikely to improve over the next nine weeks.

And as bad as this fall is, things could only get worse.