China’s nuclear accumulation aims to undermine American allies and influence in Asia

China no longer builds nuclear weapons only to dissuade – it uses them to fuel its ambitions as a dominant power in Asia, seeking to intimidate the American allies and undermine American influence in the region, according to a new report.

The Hudson Institute warns that in the mid-2030s, China should become a nuclear peer from the United States in quantity and quality, aligning a modern, survivable and diverse arsenal which includes more than 1000 warheads, a fully developed nuclear triad and tactical nuclear capacities.

However, Beijing’s goal is not to win a nuclear war, supports the report. It is a question of manipulating and degrading confidence in the American nuclear umbrella, especially among the American allies in East and Southeast Asia. By feeling the doubt that Washington would defend them in a crisis, China hopes to put pressure on countries like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea in strategic passivity, giving Beijing more space to act – including a potential movement in Taiwan – without triggering a broader allied response.

“The aim of the amplification of uncertainty is to manipulate the notions of risk to the advantage of China,” said the report. “It is mainly a question of exacerbating hesitation among the American allies by exploiting the persistent fears of abandonment and doubts concerning the commitment of America.”

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China, led by President Xi Jinping, no longer builds nuclear weapons only for deterrence – it uses them to feed its ambitions as a dominant power in Asia, seeking to intimidate the American allies and undermine American influence in the region. (Li gang / xinhua via AP, file)

China’s military strategy mixes rapid nuclear modernization with psychological operations and information war. The country is investing in advanced technologies such as boost-glide hypersonic vehicles and fractional orbital bombing systems-space platforms that can provide nuclear orbit nuclear strikes with little brochures. Its warheads can now be launched from silos, submarines, road mobile launchers and planes.

The report urges the United States to “abandon the false hope of arms control” with China and rather adopt a doctrine of strategic ambiguity and instability, which dissuades Beijing by force and unpredictability rather than bilateral disarmament.

President Donald Trump expressed his interest in future armaments control talks with China and Russia, but analysts say Beijing has shown little interest to limit his nuclear forces.

The Hudson report devotes case studies to three key allies – the Philippines, Japan and South Korea – and how China uses nuclear intimidation differently in each case.

Philippines

While Manila is more interested in the conflicts of the gray zone in the Southern China Sea, China can increasingly use implicit nuclear threats to dissuade it from welcoming American missile systems like the Typhon launcher, which can be deeply entered into Chinese territory. China has already started to deploy messages via points of sale related to the state that suggests targeting the Philippin assets.

Japan

Benefiting from the American nuclear umbrella but constrained by a strong anti-nuclear feeling, Tokyo faces a Beijing information campaign designed to shake up confidence in American commitments. China applies psychological pressure to prevent Japan from strengthening the capacities of the United States or helping a conflict on Taiwan.

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China can launch nuclear weapons from submarines, ships or on earth. (Reuters / Jason Lee)

South Korea

Seoul remains closely concentrated on the nuclear threat of North Korea, not China. It is reluctant to line up fully with American efforts to dissuade Beijing, and it is not clear if South Korea would allow American forces to use its bases in an emergency in Taiwan. China, according to the report, endeavors to maintain the compartmentalization and disengagement of Seoul in the broader conflict of East Asia.

The report describes four basic recommendations:

• Abandonment illusions of arms control: the opacity and doctrine of the ambiguity of China make traditional weapons control agreements.
• Avoid nuclear allies: American allies like Japan and Australia should resist calls to build their own nuclear arsenals, which could turn strategically.
• Double conventional deterrence: strengthen and modernize allied conventional forces to increase the cost of Chinese aggression.
• Fight fire with fire in the field of information: publicly expose China’s nuclear coercion and link military accumulations directly to the Beijing behavior.

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“Washington and his allies must show that the accumulation of China turns against him – leading to not afraid and passivity, but to a renewed resolution and to a regional rearmament,” said the report.

The report landed before the next World Pentagon posture exam, which later expected this year. The Ministry of Defense should largely announce a change in forces from Europe to Indo-Pacific, reflecting competition from China.