Analysts wonder if Trump plan could deprive Hamas of its weapons and power

The new Gaza peace framework crafted by President Donald Trump could reshape regional dynamics, but analysts warn that unless Hamas is completely stripped of its weapons and power, it will represent little more than a pause for the terror group before returning to conflict.

Dr. Michael Milshtein, director of the Moshe Dayan Forum at Tel Aviv University and one of Israel’s leading experts on Hamas, says any plan that assumes the group’s dissolution misunderstands its nature.

“Forget words like peace and coexistence, it’s not going to happen,” he told Fox News Digital. Hamas leaders, he explained, have made it clear that they will not accept an international mandate or Tony Blair-style tutelage. “They are willing to let a cosmetic Palestinian administration run daily affairs, but Hamas will act behind the scenes, like Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

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File showing a Hamas terrorist participating in a military parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File photo)

Milshtein said Hamas’s rhetoric about “freezing” weapons – rather than turning them in – revealed its strategy. “They are prepared to stop strengthening, but not to disarm. They will abandon what remains of their rocket infrastructure but retain small arms and explosives,” he said. “Hamas will remain in Gaza in all scenarios – as a military and social force. The war may end, but Hamas remains.”

An Arab source knowledgeable about the negotiations told Fox News Digital that she believed Hamas would agree to disarm – but only if he was convinced that Prime Minister Netanyahu would not restart the war or pursue its leaders after they lay down their arms, admitting that phase two will be difficult to negotiate.

Ghaith al-Omari of the Washington Institute says the current optimism rests on extraordinary regional coordination. “Trump has incredible instincts when it comes to recognizing openings and opportunities,” he said. “He recognized the moment and went for it.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the cabinet meeting with the US President’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, October 9, 2025. (Toaf Maya / GPO)

Al-Omari highlighted the convergence of several pressures — the attack on Qatari soil, increasing Gulf concern over instabilityand the fear of an extension of the conflict pushed Arab states to act. “They have enormous leverage,” he said, “and this time they used it.”

One of the key players, he stressed, is Turkey. “Bringing in the Turks was the key,” al-Omari said. “Ankara had its own interests with Washington and moved quickly to be part of the equation.” He said Turkey’s influence on Hamas is both political and personal: it welcomes Hamas leaders, controls financial channels and offers an ideological model through its ruling AKP party. “They can say to Hamas: ‘Look at us: we started illegally and unarmed, but we have learned to work within the political system. If you disarm, you can also become a political organization.'”

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This example, he said, could encourage Hamas to “play the long game: step back now, survive politically and wait until the Palestinian Authority weakens.” But he cautioned that this approach does not amount to dismantling Hamas; he simply channels his ambitions toward politics rather than open warfare.

Al-Omari is concerned about signs that Arab unity on disarmament is already fraying. “I am concerned when I hear the Egyptian Foreign Minister say that Palestinian disarmament is an internal issue,” he noted. “And Emirati officials have said they will send troops only to the Rafah border. This kind of slippage is dangerous.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump during a roundtable discussion on Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., Wednesday, October 8, 2025. (Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

He said the litmus test would come after the first phase. “If Hamas does not disarm, we will not have to wait for years,” he said. “Things could pick up in a few weeks.”

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said a truce is not peace. “It’s just a pause,” he told Fox News Digital. “There will only be peace when Hamas lays down its arms, relinquishes any role in governing Gaza, and Trump’s peace plan is fully implemented. This will require constant focus from the president and his team to stop Hamas’ games and end its hold on the people of Gaza.”

Dubowitz dismissed hopes of voluntary compliance. “They will never give up voluntarily,” he said. “They must be driven out of Gaza and relentlessly pursued inside the Gaza Strip by the IDF and all international security forces ready to intervene.”

ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE TAKES EFFECT, IDF BEGINS WITHDRAWAL TO GAZA

Tamir Heiman, former Israeli intelligence chief, described three possible scenarios once the hostages are freed and the fighting subsides. In the best-case scenario, Hamas cooperates in the establishment of an alternative technocratic government supported by international police forces. If it refuses, Israel could still transfer limited security control to an international force “in separate sectors, gradually,” he said.

File showing a Hamas terrorist participating in a military parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File photo)

The third scenario – and, according to him, the most likely – is that no foreign force intervenes. “The IDF would remain in areas along what we call the Yellow Line, operating as a security buffer similar to that in southern Lebanon,” Heiman said. Under this model, Israel retains its freedom of operation while Hamas retains its light weapons but lacks rockets and missile factories. “It’s not peace,” he added, “but it’s managed security.”

Overall, analysts paint a cautious picture. The Trump team has aligned regional interests and generated rare cooperation between Arab capitals, they say, but maintaining that unity through disarmament and reconstruction will be the true measure of success.

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If Hamas continues to exist as a militia-government hybrid, experts warn, the world may soon discover that “peace” is just an intermission between cycles – a pause mistaken for an end.