Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 52-45% in New Jersey governor’s race, Fox poll finds

President Donald Trump is not on the ballot this year, but New Jersey voters are sending him a message. More are negative about Trump than positive, by 11 percentage points, and twice as many say their vote in this year’s gubernatorial race will be to express opposition to the president rather than to show support.

That helps Democrat Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli 52% to 45% heading into the final days of the campaign, according to a Fox News poll of likely New Jersey voters. His 7-point lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Earlier this month, Sherrill was ahead by 5 points, and in September, she had an 8-point lead.

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“It’s a cliché, but it’s true, this race is all about turnout, so the big question is whether Trump supporters will show up when he’s not on the ballot,” says Daron Shaw, a Republican who leads the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Sherrill supporters appear willing to mobilize, but the evidence is mixed for those supporting Ciattarelli. If the MAGA base returns over this final weekend, the Democratic advantage narrows significantly.”

This analysis concerns likely voters.

Among those who say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, Ciattarelli is ahead by 5 points – but among those who are extremely or very enthusiastic, it’s Sherrill by 4 points. Republicans feel extremely enthusiastic (52%) than Democrats (40%).

Some 93% of Ciattarelli supporters are certain to vote for him, compared to 91% for Sherrill, while a total of 8% say they might change their choice before voting. Only 3% say they will vote for someone other than these two major candidates or are undecided about their choice.

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There is a gender gap of 17 points, as Sherrill leads by 16 points among women, while Ciattarelli +1 point among men.

Ciattarelli is favored by 4 points among white voters and by 10 points among men without a college degree. At least 98% of self-identified MAGA supporters support him.

Sherrill is favored by 48 points among nonwhites, 24 points among voters under 45 and 16 points among those with college degrees.

Some 97% of Democrats support Sherrill, while Ciattarelli gets 92% among GOPers. Seven percent of Republicans say they support Sherrill, compared to just 1% of Democrats expressing support for Ciattarelli. (There are too few independents to go out.)

More New Jerseyans think Sherrill is honest and trustworthy than say the same about Ciattarelli.

He is in negative territory by 6 points on this measure (47% honest versus 53% dishonest), while it is in positive territory by 13 points (56% versus 43%).

The same goes for their favorable ratings. Sherrill has a net positive rating of 9 points (54% favorable to 45% unfavorable). Ciattarelli’s rating is underwater by 6 points (46% vs. 52%). Some 28% have a strongly favorable opinion of each candidate, but by a margin of 9 points, more than Sherrill have a strongly unfavorable opinion of Ciattarelli.

When it comes to handling major issues, voters trust Ciattarelli by 3 points on crime. Sherrill is favored by wider margins to manage cost of living (+8), taxes (+9), energy costs (+10), and health care (+16).

The candidates are fighting to fill the seat of term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who won re-election in 2021 by defeating Ciattarelli by 3 points.

Voters have mixed feelings about Murphy, as 49% view him favorably and 48% negatively.

For Trump, it’s 44% favorable (31% strongly) to 55% unfavorable (48% strongly).

Among voters who have a strongly favorable opinion of Trump, 63% say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting in the governor’s race, while that figure is only 39% among those who have a strongly unfavorable opinion of Trump.

While 16% of New Jersey voters say one reason for their vote is to show support for Trump, more than twice as many vote to show opposition (35%). About half say the president is not a factor in their vote.

Two-thirds of Sherrill’s supporters say their vote is to express opposition to Trump, compared to a third of those supporting Ciattarelli, who say their vote is to show support.

“Every four years, New Jersey is in the spotlight as the country searches for indications of which way the political wind is blowing,” Anderson says. “The extent to which the election is a harbinger is debatable, but whatever the outcome, it is clear that Sherrill will gain support from some who are more interested in expressing opposition to Trump than electing his governor.”

The last time the New Jersey governor’s mansion remained with the same political party for three consecutive terms was in 1961.

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Conducted October 24-28, 2025 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,107 registered voters in New Jersey, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (121) and cell phones (728) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (258). There was a subsample of 956 likely voters. Results based on both the sample of registered voters and likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past voting history and self-reported likelihood of voting. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.