Mamdani’s lead for New York mayor narrows but remains at 16 points according to Fox poll

In the New York mayoral race, Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani’s lead has narrowed since early October, but he still has a double-digit lead, and his lead holds in a hypothetical two-way race.

The analysis below focuses on likely New York City voters.

The latest Fox News poll, released Thursday, gives Mamdani a 16-point lead: 47% support him, while 15% favor Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and 31% opt for independent candidate Andrew Cuomo.

FOX NEWS POLL: CAPITALISM REMAINS MORE POPULAR THAN SOCIALISM, BUT MAJORITIES SUPPORT TAXING THE RICH

Mamdani’s lead has diminished since mid-October when he was ahead by 24 points and above the 50% threshold (52% support). Support for Cuomo is up 3 points, and that for Sliwa remains unchanged (+1).

Independent candidate and current Mayor Eric Adams received 2% support despite dropping out of the race on September 28. Adams will still be on the ballot.

Mamdani’s greatest support comes from very liberal voters (85%), those under 30 (73%), women and men under 45 (69%, 65%), and Democrats (61%). He is losing a little ground among young women and Democrats (down 4 points in each group).

For Cuomo, his best groups are Jewish voters (55%), voters aged 65 and over (43%), women 45 and over (42%) and white voters without a college degree (42%).

Mamdani receives more support from men (51%) than women (44%), while Cuomo receives more support from women (35%) than men (26%).

FOX NEWS POLL: DESPITE DROP IN APPROVALS, CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS STILL OUTPERFORM DEMOCRATS

Sliwa brings together 55% of Republicans, down 7 points compared to two weeks ago. Additionally, at the beginning of October, 60% of Donald Trump’s 2024 supporters supported Sliwa, but that figure is only 47% today. Another 38% support Cuomo and 7% support Mamdani.

More than half of non-white voters support Mamdani, including 52% of black voters and 60% of Hispanic voters, while about a quarter of non-white voters support Cuomo. Mamdani and Cuomo lost ground with black voters, each down 4 points.

Mamdani’s lead narrows to 10 points in a hypothetical two-way matchup, as Cuomo gains increased support from Republicans, voters aged 65 and older, women and people without college degrees.

Mamdani supporters continue to be more enthusiastic (78% extremely or very) about voting than those of Sliwa (59%) or Cuomo (52%).

Additionally, more of his supporters are certain to vote for him (91%) than for Sliwa (83%) or Cuomo (87%). However, Cuomo supporters are now 9 points more certain of their vote choice compared to mid-October.

Very liberal voters and younger voters (especially young women) are among the most enthusiastic about going to the polls, and more than 4 in 10 voters under 30 will be voting for the first time.

“Everyone says turnout is key, but in an off-year municipal election with a charismatic, controversial candidate in the lead, ‘everyone’ is right,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Mamdani’s supporters say they’re excited to vote, but they’re also relatively young and inexperienced. If they show up, it’s likely he’ll cruise and could even hit 50%. If they don’t show up, Cuomo could get a single-digit score.”

Mamdani’s advantage on these issues has weakened, although he is still seen as best placed to handle key priorities. Two weeks ago, 52% of respondents said he could manage the economy better. Today, he’s down 5 points to 47%, although he’s well ahead of Cuomo (32%). Mamdani’s numbers are also down on crime (-6 points) and taxes (-2 points), but he still beats Cuomo or Sliwa.

Mamdani’s biggest advantage is his ability to make necessary changes, with 50% saying he will do the best job, compared to 26% who say the same of Cuomo and 20% of Sliwa. The candidates are closest on who can run the government competently: 42% Mamdani, 40% Cuomo and 16% Sliwa.

“The main feature of this election is a deep generation gap. Younger voters hope Mamdani will bring needed change, while seniors fear he will destabilize the city,” Anderson said. “Cuomo has raised concerns about public safety under Mamdani, and that may have won him some points. But time is running out and there is no evidence that Mamdani’s support is in danger of collapsing, which would be necessary for Cuomo to prevail.”

Both Mamdani and Cuomo are viewed more negatively than earlier this month. Mamdani had a positive net favorable rating of +23 two weeks ago compared to +12 today. Cuomo had a net negative favorable rating of -1 and now sits at -8.

Although their ratings remain underwater, both Sliwa and Trump saw their net favorable ratings increase: Sliwa up 7 points and Trump up 6.

How important is Israel to New York voters?

The survey asks voters how important the mayoral candidates’ positions on Israel are in their choice of candidate. Nearly half (47%) say extremely or very important, while more than half (52%) say somewhat or not at all.

CLICK HERE FOR CROSSED POINTS AND TOP LINE

Likely voters are 5 points more likely to say it is extremely important (27%) than not at all (22%). While about half of each major candidate’s supporters say the issue is important, Mamdani leads each of those groups — voters rating it extremely, very, somewhat or not at all important — by at least 7 points.

Conducted October 24-28, 2025 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,107 registered voters in New York, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (167) and cell phones (661) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (279). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. There was a subsample of 971 likely voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past voting history and self-reported likelihood of voting.