Sharp drop in number of young adults identifying as transgender and non-binary, analysis finds

More and more data is emerging confirming a sharp decline in the number of young adults identifying as transgender or non-binary.

Last week, Fox News Digital reported data shared by Eric Kaufman, a politics professor at the University of Buckingham, showing that the proportion of students identifying as something other than male or female has been cut in half in just two years.

Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University, identified additional data that appears to confirm these findings on a larger scale.

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First, Twenge analyzed data from the nationally representative Household Pulse survey, which directly asked people to identify as transgender, as she stated in an article for Generation Tech.

“Household Pulse data showed a decline in trans identity among 18- to 22-year-olds in 2024, but I was cautious about drawing conclusions because the decline only appeared over a limited period (July to September 2024) — and two of the three survey administrations added a non-binary identification option that didn’t exist before,” she wrote. “Maybe that’s why identifying as trans has declined.”

More data is emerging that supports a sharp decline in the number of young adults identifying as transgender or non-binary. (iStock)

Next, the professor — who also authored the book “Generations: The Real Differences between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers and Silents” — looked at another nationally representative survey.

The Cooperative Election Study (CES), a non-probability survey conducted annually in the fall by YouGov and administered by Tufts University, asked about transgender identification among all U.S. adults from 2021 to 2024. It also included a separate question about identifying as nonbinary.

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In 2021, 2022 and 2024, CES asked: “Do you identify as transgender?” The choices were “yes,” “no,” and “prefer not to say.”

“I prefer not to say” responses were treated as missing data, Twenge shared with Fox News Digital.

Since 2021, the CES sex/gender question asked: “What is your gender?” with choices of “man”, “woman”, “non-binary” and “other”.

Since 2021, the CES sex/gender question asked: “What is your gender?” with choices of “man”, “woman”, “non-binary” and “other”. (Collection Smith/Gado/Getty Images)

Among 18 to 22 year olds, trans identification was reduced by almost half between 2022 and 2024 – and non-binary identification fell by more than half between 2023 and 2024.

“When I looked at adults of all ages in the survey…I saw a huge increase in the number of people identifying as transgender, from those born before 1980 (Generation X and Baby Boomers) to those born in the early 2000s (who are now 21 to 25),” Twenge told Fox News Digital.

“Identifying as transgender subsequently declined, particularly for people born in 2005 and 2006 (who are now between 18 and 20 years old).”

“I think the question is no longer whether transgender people are in decline, but how far that decline will occur.”

There are several theories as to why this happens.

“One possibility is a change in acceptance; as acceptance increases, more young adults identify as transgender and/or are willing to identify as transgender in a survey,” Twenge said. “When acceptance decreased, identifying as transgender (or at least identifying as transgender in a survey) decreased.”

Among 18 to 22 year olds, trans identification was reduced by almost half between 2022 and 2024 – and non-binary identification fell by more than half between 2023 and 2024. (iStock)

In previous analyzes of data from another survey, Twenge found that the increase in transgender identifications between 2014 and 2023 did not extend to people over 45 (Generation X and baby boomers).

“This makes it less likely that changes are due to acceptance, which should impact people of all ages,” she said. “However, it is possible that acceptance increased more among young adults between 2014 and 2023 and then declined further in 2024.”

Twenge emphasized that identifying as transgender and identifying as non-binary are two different things.

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“One of the reasons I did this analysis was that the surveys that Professor Kaufmann relied on did not ask about identifying as transgender – they asked about identifying as non-binary or anything other than male or female,” she noted. “I wanted to see if there was a decline in identifying as transgender.”

She added: “I also thought it was important to look at a nationally representative sample and not just students at elite schools.”

“Once people feel more comfortable with who they are, they no longer need to define themselves so rigidly,” said one mental health expert. (iStock)

Kaufmann applauded Twenge’s new report, calling it “the best in the industry.”

“It was good to see that researchers from the traditional academic generation are following up,” he told Fox News Digital. “His data greatly reinforces what I found using data from FIRE, Brown and Andover Phillips.”

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“I think the question now is not whether trans people are in decline,” he added, “but how far that decline will occur – and what the implications will be for the progressive cultural project and for trends in gender surgery and diagnosis.”

“Maybe young people are realizing that they don’t need to announce or label everything about themselves to be valid.”

Jonathan Alpert, a New York City psychotherapist, said the change likely marks a “natural correction.”

“For a while, we taught young people to overinterpret every feeling. The therapeutic culture told them that every discomfort required a label or a diagnosis,” Alpert, who was not part of the surveys cited, told Fox News Digital. “For some, this label has become ‘non-binary,’ without identifying with one gender.”

Rather than reject who they are, Alpert said: young people may simply be tired of feeling the pressure to define every emotion or difference with a new identity.

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“So essentially, it’s performance that’s slowing down — at least from what this study shows,” he said. “A few years ago, identity was almost seen as a social badge. Today, perhaps young people are realizing that they don’t need to announce or label everything about themselves to be valid.”

Alpert said he sees this same pattern at home therapeutic practice.

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“Once people feel more comfortable with who they are, they no longer need to define themselves so rigidly. To me, that’s a sign of growing confidence, not intolerance.”

Fox News Digital has reached out to Tufts University and the U.S. Census Bureau for comment.