California Prop 50 Elections Could Reshape Congressional Districts

Early voting is now underway in California in a special election that will have a huge impact on next year’s battle for a majority in the House of Representatives.

California voters are deciding whether to adopt a November ballot proposition that would dramatically change the state’s congressional districts, putting the left-leaning state front and center in the high-stakes political fight over redistricting pitted against the president. Donald Trump and the GOP versus the Democrats.

California state lawmakers this summer approved a special proposal on the November ballot aimed at seeking voter approval to temporarily hijack the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission and return congressional map-drawing power to the Democratic-dominated Legislature. Ballots began being mailed Monday.

The effort in California, which could create five additional Democratic-leaning congressional districts, aims to counter the reliably red state of Texas’ passage of a new map that aims to create up to five right-wing seats in the House. Failure to approve so-called Proposition 50 would be a bitter setback for Democrats.

WHICH STATES ARE NEXT IN THE CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRIBUTION BATTLE

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025, in Los Angeles. (José Sánchez/AP photo)

Two-term governor. Gavin Newsomwho is considered a likely Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, is leading the effort to pass the proposal.

“If we lose here, we will have full Republican control in the House, the Senate and the White House for at least two more years,” Newsom stressed during a recent fundraising appeal to his supporters. “If we win here, we can put the brakes on Trump for his last two years.”

Trump and Republicans’ push for rare redistricting in the middle of the decade is part of a broader GOP effort to shore up its paper-thin House majority to maintain control of the chamber in the 2026 midterms, when the ruling party traditionally faces political headwinds and loses seats.

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Trump and his political team aim to prevent what happened during his first term in the White House, when Democrats won back the House majority in the 2018 midterm elections.

Last month, Missouri joined Texas as the second GOP-controlled state to pass congressional redistricting ahead of next year’s elections. Missouri’s new map will likely give the GOP another right-wing seat.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas signed new congressional redistricting maps in August ahead of next year’s midterm elections. (Paul Steinhauser-Fox News)

But unlike Texas and Missouri, California voters must give their input before returning redistricting power to the legislature in Sacramento.

“Heaven help us if we lose,” Newsom said in his fundraising speech. “This is an all-hands-on-deck moment.”

Supporters and opponents of Proposition 50 said they had raised more than $215 million as of Oct. 2, with much of the money going to pay for a barrage of advertising on both sides.

One of the two main groups opposing Newsom and the Democrats is calling their efforts “Stop the Sacramento Power Takeover.”

Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was the last Republican governor of California, is also entering the fight.

During his tenure as governor, Schwarzenegger played a leading role in passing constitutional amendments in California in 2008 and 2010, which took the power to strip state legislative and congressional districts away from politicians and placed it in the hands of an independent commission.

“That’s what they want to do, is set us back — that’s why it’s important that you vote no on Proposition 50,” Schwarzenegger said in an ad against Proposition 50. “Democracy — we have to protect it, and we have to fight for it.”

As ballots begin arriving in mailboxes across California, a panel of federal judges in Texas is hearing a case in the legal battle over passage of Congress’ new maps.

If redistricting in Texas is blocked, it’s unclear what impact the decision would have on California.

Newsom indicated this summer that California could continue its nonpartisan redistricting commission if other states reversed efforts to change their maps. But that language was not included in the proposal currently on the ballot.

Former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California opposes Democrats’ efforts to temporarily suspend the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission. (Tristar Media/WireImage)

Even before Trump launched his redistricting campaign, Ohio was under court order to redraw its maps. That could strengthen Republicans in a battleground state that now leans to the right.

Republicans in the GOP-dominated states of Indiana and Florida are also mulling congressional redistricting. And Democrats in deep-blue Maryland are considering a redistricting push.

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Other states considering changes to their maps include Democratic-dominated Illinois and the red states of Kansas and Nebraska.

Meanwhile, Democrats could win a seat in Republican-dominated Utah, where a judge recently ordered the Republican-controlled Legislature to draw new maps after ruling four years ago that lawmakers ignored an independent, voter-approved commission to prevent partisan gerrymandering.