Iran’s IRGC faces an uncertain future after devastating strokes by the United States and Israel

Formerly a revolutionary militia, the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran has built power by ideology and fear. Now, after devastating losses, his future is uncertain.

After the main military setbacks, the Iranian IRGC faces a turning point. Experts explain its roots, its power and if its reign of repression and terror can endure.

Formerly a marginal militia born of the Revolution, the body of the Guard of the Iranian Islamic Revolution (IRGC) has become the most feared and dreaded force of the regime. But according to Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a leading expert from Iran and author of “Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards”, said recent American and Israeli strikes in Iran may have permanently modified his trajectory.

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A young Iraqi holds a photo of the general of Division Mohammad Rabbani, an Iranian revolutionary guardian who was killed in the Israeli Tehran attack, during a pro-Iranian demonstration in Baghdad near the Green Zone, the ultra-secure district organizing the conflict of the Escassée of Israel-Iran. (Ahmad al-Rubaye / AFP via Getty Images)

“What the IRGC has tried to achieve in the past 25 years is essentially toast,” OSTOVAR told Fox News Digital, “their campaign to build a means of military deterrence at home thanks to missiles and nuclear enrichment, and to develop regionally through proxies, has essentially collapsed.”

Founded in the wake of the 1979 Revolution, the IRGC was created to protect and spread the values ​​of the Islamic Republic – often by violence. Ostovar describes how its legitimacy has evolved over time, initially resulting from the overthrow of the Shah, then from the Iranian-Iraq war, and later through the story made of an eternal struggle with the United States and Israel.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the Iran program of FDD, Behnam Ben Taleblu,, told Fox News Digital that the origin of the IRGC reflects a deep distrust of the traditional Iranian army, which had remained faithful to the Shah.

“The IRGC was created thanks to efforts to collect pro-regime armed gangs called Komitehs. They applied revolutionary edicts and have developed a parallel and ideological military force due to office skepticism in the national army,” he said.

People pass in front of a large banner featuring portraits of leaders killed by armed groups aligned by Iran, notably the chief of Hamas Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, and the Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, in the center of Tehran, Iran, on May 1, 2025. (Mohammadali Najib / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

“The IRGC are responsible for preserving and defending the Revolution in Iran,” said Taleblu. “This is one of the reasons why the Islamic revolution of 1979 was not tamed, and the extremism of the regime has not lost a luster. If anything, terrorism and the hostage -taking has continued.”

“They created a Boogeyman in the United States and Israel,” added Ostovar. “But today, this ideology no longer resonates with most Iranians. The majority want better relations with the West and are tired of the isolationist position of the diet.”

Today, the IRGC is deeply linked to the office elite. “The IRGC and the office elite are partners in power, treating Iran as a springboard to export their revolution,” noted Taleblu.

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During the past year, Iran has undergone a series of strategic defeats: Hezbollah has been degraded in Lebanon, Hamas paralyzed in Gaza, actually lost Syria and Iranian military infrastructure – including nuclear and missile sites – destroyed in many cases by the United States and Israeli strikes. Ostovar claims that these losses have decimated the IRGC regional imprint and forced the regime to reassess its strategy.

“They can try to rebuild everything-but it would take too long and would be too difficult,” he said. “More likely, we will see them suppressing stronger at home and relying on China and Russia to rebuild conventional military capacities such as air defense and advanced jets.”

The members of the Iranian guard of the revolutionary walk during a parade. IRGC is appointed as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department. A large part of his work consists in making secretly outside Iran. (Reuters)

Internally, the IRGC economic empire is also subject to increasing pressure. Sanctions, cyber attacks and battlefield losses made operations much more difficult. Ostovar said that foreign banks avoid any link with Iran for fear of being able to cope inadvertently with entities linked to the IRGC, forcing the group to operate through companies abroad. “They have lost a lot, and now they will have to redirect their limited resources to rebuild. This will stretch them even thinner.”

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Despite these pressures, Ostovar and Taleblu agree that it is unlikely that the IRGC will turn against the diet. “Like the diet elite, the IRGC is at a crossroads,” said Taleblu. “They have lost a large part of their confidence in the strategic brain, but are likely to remain faithful for a combination of ideological and material reasons – as long as the status quo does not change.”

For the future, Iran can be concentrated inward, based more on domestic repression than on external terror. “They cannot put weapons in Gaza. They have lost access to Lebanon. They can still try terrorism, but they have failed several times – in particular against Israeli targets,” said Ostovar. “On the other hand, suppressing their own people is something they can do easily.”

He warns that Iran could become “more island, more autocratic – more like North Korea than it is today”. Although the collapse of the regime is always a possibility, Ostovar thinks that autocracies are often resilient. “Look at Venezuela or Cuba – they have led their country in the ground but still retain power.”

In this photo published by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, the rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)

Ostovar thinks that change – and not for the best – could come by generational change. “The youngest setting in IRGC is less religious but no less hard,” he said. “They may not worry about hijabs, but they have spent the last two decades to fight the United States and Israel in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. It is the war they know.”

Certain reformist elements of the regime envisage a different path – another focusing on standardization and growth. “They want to preserve the regime not by fighting the world, but open up,” said Ostovar. “They turn more in Vietnam or China as models.”

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Taleblu warned that despite the recent setbacks, the IRGC grip remains strong. “At present, the guards have the power without responsibility, exercising a political, economic and military influence in Iranian politics. How this influence is channeled by the next generation of guards remains to be seen.”