Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by 8 points in the survey of the Governor of New Jersey

A Fox News survey of voters in New Jersey finds that Democrat Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points among probable voters (50-42%) and 7 points among the wider sample of recorded voters (48-41%)-both lead just outside the sampling margin.

The candidates compete for the seat canceled by the Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who beat Ciattarelli during the elections of governors of 2021 of approximately 3 points.

This analysis uses the results of recorded voters.

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Sherrill, a deputy, obtains his greatest support from black and Hispanic voters, those who have a university diploma and voters under the age of 45. There is a gap between the sexes of 15 points with women preferring Sherrill by 14 points and men favoring Ciattarelli by 1.

Ciattarelli, a former state assembly, is the best among the supporters of Maga, white Catholics, white men without university diploma and voters aged 45 to 54 years.

The almost equal number of Republicans returns Ciattarelli (90%) while Democrats opt for Sherrill (89%), and preference among the small independent subgroup is divided. Sherrill is helped by more voters from New Jersey identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans.

Supporters of Sherrill and Ciattarelli have a high degree of certainty of voting (84% each). However, the race has room for the movement because about a voter in seven says they could change their minds before making ballots.

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By a margin of 8 points, a larger share of supporters of Ciattarelli (50%) that supporters of Sherrill (42%) say that they are more enthusiastic about the idea of ​​voting this year than usual.

The Fox News investigation was carried out after the first debate on governors on September 21 and that the National Record Center of the National Archives had been mistakenly published by the un expelled parts of the Sherrill military file. This release, publicly reported on September 25, caused complaints of Sherrill and other Democrats, while the Ciattarelli campaign began to hurry on the issue.

By a margin of 6 points, more voters have a positive opinion on Sherrill (51%) than from Ciattarelli (45%) and, by a spread of 7 points, more thinks that it is honest and trustworthy (56%) than the same thing about it (49%).

Murphy’s favorable rating is underwater with a single point (47% against 48%).

While more than half remain dissatisfied with the management of their condition, the voters of the New Jersey are happier now than when Murphy was elected: 46% are satisfied with the way things happen, up 9 percentage points of 37% that felt this in 2017.

The New Jersey electorate is concerned about two main problems. In spontaneous and uncomposed responses, 34% say that taxes is the biggest problem that the state is confronted and 20% cite the cost of living. Other problems such as housing and energy costs are mentioned by 5% or less.

Sherrill is preferred by 16 points among those whose priority is the cost of living, while tax voters promote Ciattarelli by 5.

Only 4%of voters consider President Donald Trump / The Republicans as the biggest problem for the State, but one third say that one of the reasons for their vote is to express the opposition to Trump (34%), more than double the number of voting to show him support (16%).

Six out of 10 democrats say their vote is to express an opposition to Trump compared to four out of 10 Republicans who say that their their support is to show. More than half of the Republicans say that Trump is not a factor in their vote (56%).

Overall, 42% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion on Trump, while 55% consider him unfavorably. It is a net negative of 13 points, which has been an improvement since 2017, when its notes were underwater from 26 points.

While former vice-president Kamala Harris won New Jersey (52%), Trump obtained 46% of the votes in the presidential election last year, against 41% he received in 2020 and 2016.

Poll-Pourri

A majority of 54% of the voters of New Jersey think that the way in which the Republicans speak of politics these days lead to an increase in violence, while a little less than half, 48%, say the same on the Democrats.

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Directed from 25 to 28 September, 2025, as part of the joint management of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 voters registered with New Jersey selected at random in a voter file on the scale of the State. The respondents maintained themselves with live interviewers on fixed lines (120) and mobile phones (638) or filled the survey online by following a link received by SMS (244). There was a sub-sample of 822 probable voters. The results based on both the registered voter and the likely voter sample have a sampling error margin of ± 3 percentage points.

The sampling error for the results between the subgroups is higher. In addition to the sampling error, the wording of the question and the order can influence the results. Sources to develop weight objectives include the most recent survey on the American community, the analysis of Fox News voters and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure that the demography of respondents is representative of the registered electoral population. Probable voters are identified on the basis of the history of the past vote and the probability of self -depressed voting. The results among the sub-groups are only indicated when the sample size is at least n = 100.

Victoria Balara de Fox News contributed to this report.